Thursday, December 17, 2009

Thoughts on Stop & Go? + bet sizes for punishing an UTG HBL/minraiser?

This is a 6/45 where I posted 3 hands from different stages + the last 5 at FT.

HH1 is a stop & go that worked (although he called). Asarpoj had minraised from button 3 orbits in a row to my BB. I was really getting annoyed as I knew he was stealing, but my hands had been the worst ever. The 4th orbit I decided to use the stop & go with ATC. Anyway, he used the timebutton all the way (interesting to observe what this move does to another player vs. how quick they sometimes call an AI).

HH2 is punishing the HBL Aaron. Any thoughts on this hand? There is a tight platinum star (mjh) still left to act + saitek who is a multitabler with nice stats.

HH3 is the famous suited gapper. I was so shortstacked and desperate + my TAG image got the folds.

HH4-8 I chickened out and decided to creep ITM, lol.


  1. N1 MrSmith

    H1 Firstly, you said he minraised from the btn 3 orbits in a row. Therefore, we can feel pretty confident that he is trying to steal. Secondly, look at the stacks and pot. He has 820 (M2.75) chips after raising, you have 1060 (M3.5) and there are 700 chips in the pot which is 66% of your stack.

    Now, you have an above average hand, he is very likely stealing, your M is getting low and this is a turbo. All this tells me that folding is not the best option. So, do we reraise all in preflop or run a stop and go?

    Stop and Go: You flat call making the pot 900. You then shove the flop for your remaining 860 chips which is basically a pot sized raise and equal to his stack. You are giving him 2:1 odds with 2 cards left which isn’t good for him if he missed and has two over cards. OK, you both have just enough chips that the stop and go can work here.

    Shove pf: The math is the same as above except now he is getting 2:1 odds with 5 cards to come. Calling is actually slightly cEV+ for him with ATC.
    Interesting! After first looking at the hand I was ready to argue shoving pre as the best line. However, the math indicates that the Stop and Go may be the better alternative.

    We have had quite a few examples of minraisers getting stacked lately, but few of when they work... NH MrSmith!

    H2 I’m not as happy with this one MrSMith. Aaron min raised utg and is chipleader. You are on the verge of getting blinded out, and have a premium hand which is probably good right now. You are playing this hand and have two ways to go. Try to double by getting more of his chips in, or try to win the pot preflop. If you want to get more chips in then I would flat call hoping he raises the flop. If lots of scare cards come you can still fold withough having lost too many chips. If you like the flop then reraise all in over his flop bet. If you want to win the hand uncontested, then move all in preflop.

    As played, your reraise is too small (or too big). He is getting better than 2:1 odds since it only costs a 1000 to call with 2300 in the pot. If he flat calls and an A comes on the flop what are you going to do? You bet so much that you are committed to the hand and are blinded out if you fold.

    H3 I’m shoving this pretty much all the time, NH!

    H6 Nice fold. Note, with your short stack, I’m calling ai if the funny man folds.

    The other hands look good as played. GG

    PS: I watched MrEMC2 win a $6/18 turbo last night. I also caught seabreeze in action. He ended itm in a 1/90. GG to you both, if you are reading!

  2. Good stuff Roland. HH2 is the hand I wanted "more out of", I like your comments/analysis.

  3. Again I'm late to the party but...

    H1 N1! I like it a lot. He might well have folded if unpaired medium/high cards had flopped.

    H2 To me, this an automatic all-in. "Is there any other way to play freakin' jacks??!!", lol. With a stack of 2400 and 900 in the pot, I'm happy to take it down pre-flop but I expect to have the best hand if called with a good chance to double up. The three stacks behind me are short enough that I can lose to one of them and still be in okay shape. Applying the Gordon Rule, there's only about a 4.5% chance one of them has a bigger pair than me and based on their stats, the blinds are likely to fold anyway. What I don't want to do is flat call, inviting a call from the BB for a 3-way pot only to have an A, K or Q flop, which will happen almost 60% of the time. And jacks are too weak, I think, to slow-play with a pot committing raise to 1400, inviting the minraiser to call based on pot odds and then only proceed post-flop if he hits his hand -- make him put his chips in the pot and get your chips in when you're ahead.

  4. Tx Benko, your comments are also much appreciated as always.

  5. why do you guys have a blog?
    how can you be proud to post such fishy plays like that q9 play?
    why people like you, who both lose money online would even want to have a blog???
    mrsmith999 lost around $1000 playing sng's, & roland gtx lost around $600...

    do not bring variance to the table, you both played around 3000 sngs each

    you guys are on a high horse...
    you both are serious fishes...

    to all new poker players, do not follow their advices, they play terribly bad...


    i really find it unbelievable that you guys try to "teach" poker, and discuss plays and stuff, when you are two big fishy losers who should first start fixing the stupid way you both plays before giving advices to people.

    if any of you two wanna challenge me (ring game heads up) im ready to bankrupt both of you donkeys...

    you are so bad i'd multitable both of you at the same time.

    let me know if you are interested by this challenge.

  6. P.S. they both don't have mtt winning that would cover their sng's loss...

    let me guess... you make your money at cashgames only ...

    of course...

    LOL... they all say that...

    Well I'm done with you.

    farewell losers.

    You both made me laugh a lot, batman & robin...


  7. Thanks for your wisdom Anonymous. I'm curious that you neither posted your stars name, nor did you attempt to counter any of the poker posts here. I'm assuming you play as Clémont E. and are still tilting over your KK not holding up - LMAO!

    I'm online most days, look me up.

  8. you are welcome roland

    you are assuming wrong

    my name is aaron

    no i wont look you up
    why would i look up losing players? huh?

    you guys are so funny thinking i am going to look you up

    do u realise u are a fish?


    i just want people to know that falling your advices = losing money.

    im the good guy here

  9. Excellent Aaron. So easy it would be for you to take our money then!

  10. OK aaron, just to put you at ease, the only people reading this blog are players from my home game, aside from a few guests like yourself who have found their way here. The regulars know far too well my strengths and weaknesses.

    If you have something productive to post, feel free to do so. If you don't,... well you can probably figure that much out yourself.