Thursday, December 10, 2009

Reply to Bet Size Question

OK MrSmith here is my take :)

Short answer: A10s in this situation is a fist pumping insta-shove and hope your hand holds. You don’t even mind getting a caller. My standard line in this situation with an M of 3.75. I’m shoving a very wide range from the button. I’m shoving any two better than average cards. Above average being any two cards 8 or higher, any Ax, and any pocket pair. (Check the pushbot chart...)

Long answer: I did the math, but it isn’t too interesting. There are several other factors that are more important. Here is my way of looking at the situation.

1. You have 4320 chips with an M of 3.75. In other words you are short stacked and on the verge of being blinded out. You need to make a move before the blinds hit you again. you can’t reasonably expect a better hand and situation than this one.

Side note: I have noticed that Moshman’s level for blinding out is much lower than what you see in the 3/45 turbos. I have adjusted my minimum M to 3. Anything under that is getting called pretty much every time.

2. The action is folded to you AND you are on the button. The only one’s remaining are the blinds. If I’m facing the blinds, then I always proceed assuming they have a random hand.

3. You picked up A10s! This is a top 10% hand. I can’t think of any tournament situation in which you could fold A10s from the btn on an unopened pot. You MUST play this hand, folding is clearly not an option. So, now we know that we have to play this hand. What is the best line, limping, making a standard raise, or moving all in?

Bet Size
Both blinds, the only players remaining to act, are even shorter stacked than you are. The small blind has 3674 chips remaining with an M of 3.2. The big blind has 2885 remaining with an M of 2.5. In these situations, even if you were chip leader, you need to play as if you had a stack equal to the sb. However, in this case you actually do.

If you limp and get shoved on what are you planning on doing? If you intend on calling, then making a raise yourself is much better since it gives you the chance that they fold. If you manage to limp and miss the flop what do you do? Are you going to call a raise or fold? This becomes very difficult. You are so short stacked that I feel limping is just spewing chips and moving you even closer to being blinded out.

Just like above, what do you do if you make a small raise? Any raise will be pot committing the blinds if they decide to play. However, a non all in does give them the chance to run a stop and go on you. Furthermore, with your low M you cannot fold once you are in the hand. If you do you will be blinded out.

With an M of 5 or less, (or 10 bb or less in Moshman terms) the only raise is an all in raise. What happens if you shove?
1. You gain maximum fold equity
2. You remain the aggressor avoiding any reraise possibilities
3. You get your chips in the middle with a solid hand
4. The blinds are so short that you are miles ahead of their calling range

What happens when we shove?
I estimate the following:
both blinds fold 50%
If they both fold, great you pick up the much needed 1150 in the pot.

1 caller 30%
If you get 1 caller you are a 65% favorite vs a random hand, 48% vs a lower pair, about 30% vs 1010 – KK,AJ, AQ and AK. The only hand you are really afraid of is being a 13% dog vs AA.

2 callers 20%
If you get 2 callers you are 47% vs two random hands.

All in all, this is a clear cut cEV+ situation. You want to shove this 100% of the time in this situation. The trick is not to get hung up in the results of the particular hand. Over time cEV+ actions do win money. Unfortunately, you were unlucky vs a miracle flush.

GG MrSmith :)


  1. Very good analysis Roland, TY! If I had pushed AI first, I also would get the satisfaction of getting my chips in good and wait for his reaction. I really hate having to call AI's.

  2. I hate making those calls too! However, if situations were reversed and you were in the bb facing an all in from the button. Your stack is still so short that calling is correct with A10s.

  3. I'm late to the party but agree 110% with Roland's short answer. All in!