I’ve been reviewing my 45 man results for 2009 and trying to patch holes in my game. I was running hot at the beginning of the year, but had horrible results in June and July. What happened and how do I fix it?
Was this downswing the result of poor play or a change in my game? Was it due to multitabling too many boards, switching from $3.25 to $6.50, or due to playing while heavily medicated? Or, perhaps, it was due to an incredible string of G**D***M****F******* river suckouts – LOL! ”Right move wrong result” does seem to be my motto lately... Or maybe, just maybe, the change in results is simply the randomness of poker.
Well, let’s see what the numbers indicate. The first set of tables ”Roland’s 45 man finishes” compares the last 120 days to all of 2009. Statistically, all the numbers are identical except for my ROI down at the bottom. It seems strange that it is up for the year, but down for the last 120 days when all the other numbers are identical...hmmm.
I did make the move to the 6/45s in June, perhaps the answer is there. I have played about 500 $3 games and 500 $6 games so the results are quite easy to compare. Take a look at the second table with this comparison. My ITM rate is 21% for both, yet I’m crushing the $3’s and giving away money on the $6’s. What’s up?
We find the answer by looking at my final table finishes. You see that I make the top 3 places much more often in the $3’s than in the $6’s. 7th place pays $12, yielding less than one buy in profit. Whereas 1st place pays $84, yielding a 12 buyin profit. This difference is huge and is a clear reminder that you have to play to win these tourneys rather than crawling into the money!
500 games may seem like a lot. You would think that it should give me a good idea of where I stand at this level. However, I only need two 1st place finishes to bump my ROI back up to the plus side – only 2 games! When every final table is guaranteed to end in a series of brutal coin tosses, two different outcomes out of my +100 final tables is simply a random element. (Did I mention my 14 consecutive losses with KK in all in situations...argh) Thus, variance is still quite high even after 500 games and my ROI will continue to bounce around for the rest of the year.
So, now I know that my ITM rate in the 6’s is good, but I’m not finishing often enough in the top 3. What is this the result of? Probably a lot of things. There are more good players at this level. I have lost too many all ins at final tables where I was ahead preflop. And, I’ve been playing on a laptop in front of the TV rather than on my stationary PC. The smaller screen and other distractions have surely caused me to miss some reads and resteal opportunities that I should have taken advantage of. However, variance is still such a huge factor that I’m not going to start doubting my game.
After all this, I feel confident that I am still on track, and that the right move will over time give profitable results. I must continually work on my game, adjusting shoving and calling ranges in particular. Moreover, I need to consider if it would be better to drop the $6’s and focus on the $3’s, or perhaps drop the high octane Turbos and move to something with a different structure and less variance. Let’s save that discussion for another day.
Roland
PS: It was fun to be seated next to you last night Klokkhammer :)
Was this downswing the result of poor play or a change in my game? Was it due to multitabling too many boards, switching from $3.25 to $6.50, or due to playing while heavily medicated? Or, perhaps, it was due to an incredible string of G**D***M****F******* river suckouts – LOL! ”Right move wrong result” does seem to be my motto lately... Or maybe, just maybe, the change in results is simply the randomness of poker.
Well, let’s see what the numbers indicate. The first set of tables ”Roland’s 45 man finishes” compares the last 120 days to all of 2009. Statistically, all the numbers are identical except for my ROI down at the bottom. It seems strange that it is up for the year, but down for the last 120 days when all the other numbers are identical...hmmm.
I did make the move to the 6/45s in June, perhaps the answer is there. I have played about 500 $3 games and 500 $6 games so the results are quite easy to compare. Take a look at the second table with this comparison. My ITM rate is 21% for both, yet I’m crushing the $3’s and giving away money on the $6’s. What’s up?
We find the answer by looking at my final table finishes. You see that I make the top 3 places much more often in the $3’s than in the $6’s. 7th place pays $12, yielding less than one buy in profit. Whereas 1st place pays $84, yielding a 12 buyin profit. This difference is huge and is a clear reminder that you have to play to win these tourneys rather than crawling into the money!
500 games may seem like a lot. You would think that it should give me a good idea of where I stand at this level. However, I only need two 1st place finishes to bump my ROI back up to the plus side – only 2 games! When every final table is guaranteed to end in a series of brutal coin tosses, two different outcomes out of my +100 final tables is simply a random element. (Did I mention my 14 consecutive losses with KK in all in situations...argh) Thus, variance is still quite high even after 500 games and my ROI will continue to bounce around for the rest of the year.
So, now I know that my ITM rate in the 6’s is good, but I’m not finishing often enough in the top 3. What is this the result of? Probably a lot of things. There are more good players at this level. I have lost too many all ins at final tables where I was ahead preflop. And, I’ve been playing on a laptop in front of the TV rather than on my stationary PC. The smaller screen and other distractions have surely caused me to miss some reads and resteal opportunities that I should have taken advantage of. However, variance is still such a huge factor that I’m not going to start doubting my game.
After all this, I feel confident that I am still on track, and that the right move will over time give profitable results. I must continually work on my game, adjusting shoving and calling ranges in particular. Moreover, I need to consider if it would be better to drop the $6’s and focus on the $3’s, or perhaps drop the high octane Turbos and move to something with a different structure and less variance. Let’s save that discussion for another day.
Roland
PS: It was fun to be seated next to you last night Klokkhammer :)
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