Deep in the Daily 30K!

I was ITM in the Daily 30K last night and will let you know how I finally ended up at the end of the post. First, though, I would like to discuss a very critical hand. I'd like to hear your thoughts on how I played it. Here is the situation:

We were already ITM with 200 players remaining. I was middle of the pack at this point. The blinds had just gone up to the 1250/2500 + 310 ante level and increase every 10 minutes. I had an average stack size with 56K giving me an M of 8.5. There were 9 players at the table making the pot 6540 before the action started. I had been at the table a while and had decent reads on the players plus a very TAG image myself. (Klokkhammer, my floprate was 9% after several hours of play)

The hand folded around to me in the hijack seat and I look down at AKs - oh yeah! The CO and BTN each have about 34K remaining and both are tight aggressive. The sb was also pretty tight-aggressive, but had recently doubled giving him a big stack of 140K. He had been using his stack to bully people, but was still playing quite smart. The bb was already blinded out with less than 5K remaining.

I knew I would need to double my stack if I wanted any chance of getting to the final table and decided that I wanted to gamble with this hand. So, the question was how to best go about it. I had three options:

1. Limping: This can't be good. I don't want a string of callers and I don't want to play this hand out of position. I have to raise and make them pay to play against my premium, yet vulnerable hand. Plus, I want to get more chips in the pot.

2. Raise all in: I considered this but there are several problems. Firstly, my M is 8.5 which is a bit high for open shoving. More importantly, if I shove then I am quite sure that everyone will fold giving me too little value on the hand. I want to win chips with this hand, not just steal the blinds.

3. Make a solid raise: This seemed like the best option. None of the remaining players ought to flat call with mediocre hands. Hopefully, my raise will look like a steal and one of the tag players will reraise all in on me with a worse hand or small pocket pair. This seemed like the best way to go.

The CO and BTN each had about 34K and were getting desperate. I raised to 9999 chips or about 4x the bb. I opted for 4x rather than my standard 2.5x for several reasons. Firstly, I didn't want to risk a string of callers, especially the big stack. Secondly, I wanted my bet to be large enough to be pot committing for the CO and BTN if they decide to play against me. Thus, the all in reraise that I want from them would be their only viable option. Finally, a larger than normal raise often looks like a steal with a low pocket pair or mediocre suited connectors. It looks like you are afraid of getting some action. Thus, once again making the all in reraise seem like a smart move with a pretty wide range of hands.

So, I raise to 9999 chips. The CO folds (no luck there). The BTN folds (no luck there either). The big stack small blind flat calls. Hmmm... I am convinced that if he had a premium hand that he would have reraised all in then and there. So, I assume that he has a small pocket pair, two broadway cards, A-rag suited or suited connectors. That is a pretty wide range of hands. I am also convinced that if the flop doesn't show an A, that he will bet the flop no matter what hoping to steal the pot. I didn't really want to get in a post flop war with the big stack, but that is what I got. The bb folded (even though he was left with barely an M of 1 in chips - lol)

There is now 26K in the pot. The flop shows QJ9. I have two overcards (maybe 6 outs). The Q9 are the same suit as my AK giving me 9 outs for the nut flush. And, any of the non-flush 10s will give me the nut straight (3 outs) . This is a solid flop even though my AK didn't hit. Unfortunately, the flop also fits well with many of the hands the small blind could have played. K10, KQ, QJ, J10s, 99 or A9 for example. These are all hands that would be consistent with his flat call preflop. He could aslo have a bunch of other hands that missed this flop completely. Let's see what he does.

The small blind was first to act post flop. He bets 10K. Hmmm... what does this mean. Well, if he had two pair or a set, I would have expected a larger raise (at least 50% of pot) to make my calling with a drawing hand a mistake. If he had K10 and flopped a straight, I think he would have checked hoping to reraise my C-bet. Finally, the bet size looks like a probing bet at 30% of the pot and seems most consistent with a semi-bluff steal. His bet is small enough he can get away from the hand if need be. Yet, it is large enough to be pot committing for me if I flat call.

Well, all of this analysis seems pretty standard and these thoughts took about a micro second for me to run through while playing the hand. Even discounting my overcards, I was going to improve to a straight or flush about 50% of the time. Plus, I thought it very likely he was bluffing and that my hand was already ahead. I was taking my shot at getting deep in this tourney. Doubling now would put me in the top 30 players with a real shot at a major cash. So, I instantly reraise all in with my remaining 46K!

There is now 82K in the pot and it costs him 36K to call. I expected him to fold, but he thought for a while and made the call. He turns over 102s !!? He has an open ended straight draw, but wrong suit for any flush chances. I could not believe he called my preflop bet with such trash! He had been pretty tight and sensible up until this hand.

Pokerstove puts my AKs as 77 % probability to win the hand on this flop.

The turn shows a beautiful big A solidifying my lead in the hand - yes! Pokerstove gives now my hand an 86 % probability to win. I'm going deep in this tourney. I can feel it in my bones! Only One card remaining and he must catch one of the two remaining Ks or one of the two remaining non-club 8s. The 8 of clubs gives me the nut flush.

And the river is ...... the 8 of diamonds - F***!

He caught his card and sent me to the rail in 200th place. I cashed for 50 bucks, which is nice, but I'm getting tired of getting rivered by trash late in the game.

Anyway, I thought this was an interesting hand dealing with the issue of relative stack sizes in MTTs. Should I have played it differently? Do you see any problems with my analysis? Or, was this simply another case of "right move, wrong result"?

Let me know what you think:)

Roland

PS: Anyone know if Benkogambit is back from their cruise?