Early Game (M 20+)
Early in the game I normally raise 3x or 4x on an unopened pot from any position.
If I get reraised, I generally fold in a normal speed tourney. However, I may reraise all in in a 3/45 or 2/180 forcing an early gamble. I need to look at the situation, the opponent and the amount of dead money in the pot before I make this move though.
For example, assume the blinds are 25/50 and I have 1500 chips and am UTG at a full table in a 2/180 and raise 3x with JJ. I get three callers and then the lag donk big blind minraises. (This situation happens surpizingly often in the 2/180s!)
Now there is the 75 from the blinds, my 150, three callers for another 450 and the bb minraise 250 (50 already paid in bb) making the pot 925 to me. I have 1350 chips left and the pot represents 70% of my stack! I have three options now:
Fold: this seems like a mistake, because my hand is probably best right now. Furthermore, it only costs me 150 for a chance at the 925 in the pot. Those odds are too good to pass up, especially in a turbo donkement.
Call: this seems like a bigger mistake than folding. By calling I'm inviting the three active players after me to call as well due to the increaingly favorable pot odds. I don't want play a huge pot against 4 other players. Secondly, I'm utg and out of position. This makes my post flop play much harder than if I were last to act. Thirdly, one of the remaining three players left to act might shove. I don't want to be forced to call an all in with JJ if I can avoid it. So, from my point of view, calling is worse than folding in this situation.
Raise all in: I like this. By shoving I completely remove the problem of position. Furthermore, I have a fair amount of fold equity against loose-passive donks. There is a decent chance, 30% I'm guessing, that everyone will fold winning me a huge pot uncontested. If I get called by the minraiser so be it. Only QQ, KK and AA are ahead of my hand and the overlay in the pot makes a cointoss profitable. Unfortunately, you sometimes get a string of all in callers making for a 5 way all in crap shoot. This isn't the best outcome, but still seems ev+. Winning 7500 chips early in this tourney will give me an excellent chance to get deep. If you lose, move on to the next tourney.
Early game facing a raise.
If I'm out of position I tend to fold JJ to an early raiser. There is not enough in the pot to make the risk worth it. Espcially considering that half the table is left to act and may reraise.
If I'm the btn or sb facing a 3x raise, AND someone has already flat called the original raiser AND I think it unlikely that the blinds will reraise, then I'll flat call with JJ. If overcards flop then I'll check-fold the hand. If low cards flop and it's checked to me, then I bet 75% to 100% of the pot, but will probably fold to a reraise. My goal is to see the flop while keeping the pot small.
If I'm the bb, then I'm more apt to flat call a normal raise or preflop limpers since my call closes the action. If the flop is low or a set, then I check-raise. If it checks around then I raise the turn if it is still low. I get pretty cautious if an A comes on the turn.
As I've said before, early in the game, I fold if unsure and try to keep pots small preflop.
Midgame or M11 -19:
Now things are starting to get interesting. I'm still raising an unopened pot with JJ from early position. If I'm M15+ I'll raise my standard 2.5x or 3x. If I get reraised, I need to review my read on the opponent as well as their stack size. Short stack or big stack lag donk, then I'm probably going to gamble with a call or all in reraise. Medium stack or tight player, then I'll grudgingly fold.
If I'm in position (CO, or BTN) then my betsize will vary according to the circumstances. Stack size becomes very important. If any of the remaining players (the bb in particular) has a M of 10 or less AND seems tight aggressive, then I am more apt to simply shove all in rather than giving them the chance to reraise all in to me thinking I'm trying to steal. Fold equity makes being the aggressor a better option here. It also helps to force the other potential players out of the hand.
Recognizing and avoiding these potential reraise situations is an essential tool if you want to get deep in MTTs. TAG players hate to get reraised and will therefore usually fold, but they love to be the ones making the all in reraise. This move is the bread and butter move of many players. You will see it quite often on single tables too, but the divergent stack sizes in MTTs make it more common there.
Once again, if I'm in early/mid position and facing a preflop bet I'm folding. I can't afford to be limp/folding anymore.
If I'm the btn, sb or bb and facing a late position standard raise that I deem likely a steal attempt, then as explained above, I'm reraising all in. You have to take advantage of these situations if you want to win!
If I'm in the blinds and facing a known high blind limper, then obviously I'm raising. If I'm in the blinds and facing a string of limpers, then i limp and see what the flop brings with my post flop action being fairly cautious since I have no range to put all the limpers on.
Late game or low M 3 - 10:
Now the blinds are significant and/or you are getting desperately short stacked. I'm raising all in on any unopened pot from any position and with pretty much any stack. If you are short, then you need to gamble and double up. JJ is a solid hand for this, many big stacks with Ax or lower pairs will willingly donk off their chips to you. If you have a big stack then aggress brutally and force others to fold or gamble their tourney life against you. Like I said, there are only three hands that you are a dog to.
Facing a raise. With a low M or very low Q, then I'm probably going to gamble and call a raise putting me all in or reraise all in myself since we are getting desperate. With a big stack, then position and relative stack sizes become important. If another big stack is to my left and yet to act, I might simply fold rather than getting into an unexpected, and tourney risking, confrontation against them. If it is a standard 2.5x or 3x raise AND I'm in positon AND the stacks left to act are less than 30% of my stack, then I'll flat call and see what the flop shows. The original raiser will often bet or shove on the flop because they are pot committed, so you need a decent read AND judge their stack to know the proper line here.
If I'm in the blinds AND facing a CO or btn raise that I deem a steal, then my normal action is to reraise all in regardless of their stack size. If I'm short, then I'm deperate and want to gamble. If I have a big stack, then I can consider the raiser's stack. If he is short, then he is desperate and I'm probably ahead. If he is big then unless he has a monster, he won't want to risk his big stack on a marginal hand. However, with smallish average stacks, the Stop and Go is a better alternative (see below)!
As I've said before, late in the game, when unsure RAISE - LOL!
Late Game but Blinded Out or horrible Q:
One final situation to mention. Once your M drops to a cetain level you no longer have any fold equity. This is what Moshman calls "blinding out". He says that this is when your M is around 2. Fold equity being your ability to force others to fold by raising all in. (If your all in raise is for example less than one big blind, then the bb should be calling with ATC.)
However, in MTTs you also need to look at you Q relative to the table. Q is Harrington's term for your stack size relative to the average stack size in the tourney. In larger MTTs you will often find yourself with an almost decent M of let's say 5 or 6, but a Q of only 0.25 (meaning your stack is 1/4 the avgerage stack size). If the other players at your table have average stacks, then your stack is insignificant to them even though your M is still survivable. (This happened to me in the WCOOP). Thus, you have little or no fold equity even though your M says otherwise.
If your stack is this low, then you want to raise all in if first to act, or preferably call an all in raise because it will allow you to nearly triple up if you win the hand. There is one exception to this though. If you are in the sb, or in the bb after the sb has folded, then use a STOP and GO.
We have already determined that you have no fold equity preflop. However, you do have some fold equity post flop, especially the low Q situation. Flat call preflop, then being first to act on the flop (this is essential for this to work) shove all in without even looking at the cards on the board!
Most flops miss most hands, so even an all-in minraise has some fold equity post flop. Your opponent may fold a Q10s hand on an A high board or a wet board, or fold his Ax hand if no A hits.
The Stop and Go is also often your best choice when in the sb or bb (after the sb folds) AND you are facing a late position raise AND either you are the raiser are so short stacked that reraising preflop won't work because one of you is priced in. How do you know whether to reraise preflop or do a Stop and Go? Easy, look at the stack sizes and pot odds preflop. If raising all in preflop creates a calling situation for your opponent with around 2:1 odds or better, then opt for the Stop and Go. If the odds are closer to 3:1 shove. Remember that if the opponent's stack is less than yours, that you have to use their stack to compute the odds, not yours!
Now let me know how you handle JJ. Perhaps I'll be able to figure out what is currently wrong with my game!
Roland
Nice post! If I had known how to handle JJ, I wouldn't have asked, lol! Seriously though, I think I need to look into using stop & go more, as your points here seem very sensible.
ReplyDeleteI chewed over your jam packed post while I was out walking the dog, Roland! It struck me (and I will just throw it out there consideration that the Stop and Go is best used with hands like 55 and KQo which are likely either in a race or dominated. If I'm dominated, then the possibility of post-flop fold equity really works in my favor. With 55, I might be able to get someone to fold a hand like 99 if the flop comes with high cards and with KQo someone with AK or AQ might fold if they miss. But with a hand as strong as JJ, there's a much greater chance that I am the dominator, in which case I want the chips to go in pre-flop. Even if he has two overcards, I'm still something like a 57:43 favorite. So I'm only really worried about AA-QQ which he isn't folding post-flop anyway. It also goes without saying that the Stop and Go works best against inexperienced players.
ReplyDeleteI busted out of one of the cruise tourneys with JJ. My M was about 3 and the blinds were rising incredibly fast so when an early position short stack pushed I happily reraised all-in only to have the BB call. The ep player had Kx but the BB had AQ and knocked both of us out.
I hadn't realized how long and rambling my post was until after I published it. Worse yet, I doubt I've said anything that hasn't already been said better by Harrington and Moshman. Although, since I'm simply repeating what the experts have said, most of the advice should be fairly sound MrSmith :)
ReplyDeleteNow, benkogambit, I agree with your points completely if you are playing a single table at standard blind rates. However, the pressure for the blinds in turbos and divergent stack sizes late in MTTs create situations where opponents are willing to see a flop at any price with extremely wide ranges such as any two suited cards and any Ax.
I've gotten rivered so many times by improbable hands that I always look for the best way to force them to fold either preflop or on the flop rather than letting them have two "free" cards on the turn and river. With three possible overcards to my JJ and all the straight and flush possiblilities, I treat the hand as extremely vulnerable. It is only a pair, as I like to say! Perhaps I'm playing scared with this hand... If I get time, I'll try to do the math to see if shoving or Stop and Go is most ev+.
On a related side note, I try to force a fold often when flopping a set too. If the board has two suited cards or a possible straight, then I'm usually betting on the flop even if I'm first to act (except HU). I don't like giving anyone a free card!
All this leads to my current "Annette15" style of raising or folding, and rarely if ever calling. Always be the aggressor in the hand! Perhaps, I need to tone down this mentality a bit. You seem to have found a profitable middle ground which includes flat calling with non-nut hands.
You guys are the MTT experts! But the wider my opponent's calling range, the happier I am to be all-in pre-flop with JJ when short stacked and have a good chance to double up. It would be interesting to see an EV analysis though.
ReplyDeleteFlat calling in position is something both Negreanu and Phil Gordon advocate. As we all konw, it can be very uncomfortable to play post-flop OOP. Flat calling in the blinds is a different matter but in short-handed, low buy-in SNGs with deepish stacks it too can be profitable. Since the Stop and Go is a flat call, does that mean it's not in Annette's arsenal? :)
I found the article on Annette15. Her no call strategy actually pertains to an analysis of her final table play. I don't know what she thinks about the Stop and Go, but I do know that Fossilman likes it :)
ReplyDeleteHere is the Annette link:
http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/multitable/mtt_strategy/Annette_15_Strategy_Tips_part2.html
This has been an interesting discussion. I'll get to the JJ math tomorrow hopefully.
Interesting. Thanks for the link, Roland. Chris Ferguson employed a raise-or-fold strategy in winning the 2000 WSOP (although he subsequently toned it down a bit) and it obviously works for annette_15. I too am a strong advocate of raising or folding except in those situations where it's better to call lol!
ReplyDeleteLOL I couldn't agree with you more benko!
ReplyDelete