We were discussing the relative merits of shoving preflop vs doing a Stop and Go in low M or low Q situations with JJ. Well gentlemen, I’ve searching, I’ve done some math and I’ve done some thinking as well. Unfortunately, I need to keep it short this time.
EV-wise all in preflop is best with JJ as benko suggests. Nonetheless, in tournaments it is often better to give up some equity in favor of ensuring your tourney survival, ie Stop and Go. Read Negreanu's thought's on the topic. We see that with drawing hands the Stop and Go is a good option.
Now the question becomes how does this apply to pocket pairs? Obviously, AA and KK are fist pumping all ins preflop hoping to get called. Although, need I remind you of the 14 consecutive times that my KK got spanked last month... QQ also seems to be so far ahead preflop that shoving is best.
On the other end of the pocket pair spectrum, with low pairs (22 -88) where you are presumably facing two overcards, the 2+2 experts lean toward Stop and Go since you are not that much of a favorite, even though you are probably ahead.
Hands like JJ, 1010 and 99 are boarder line hands that fall in the middle. You might be facing one overcard or two. The 2+2 experts are not in agreement on how to play these situations, especially JJ. The only thing they agree upon is that you can never fold these hands pre or post flop. So it is back to the particlar situation you are in.
I'm sorry this isn't more clear cut, but that's poker!
Roland
I like it Roland. If the pros disagree on JJ, go with your instincts! I was railbirding John Duthie in a tourny where he was questioned by another player whether his shuv with JJ was a sensible move. A player had raised pf and he shuved his JJ with a medium/small stack. He hit his set on the flop and crippeled the KK guy who had a midsize stack. Anyway; he flatly responded "Is there any other way of playing jokers shortstacked?".
ReplyDeleteThanks as always for the research and analysis, Roland (and for the anecdote, MrSmith). Sounds like a close call over at 2+2 so one probably isn't making a big mistake either way but I'm with John Duthie on this one. Negreanu's article seems quite sensible but he uses AQ as his example, pointing out that you'll bust out 38% of the time against KT (and 34% of the time with AK versus as weak a hand as 32o). But I'd be curious to hear his views on JJ (I could have asked him in Copenhagen!) because now KT's equity drops to 29% (from 38%) and 32o's equity plummets to 15% (from 34%). Using the stop and go may marginally increase one's chances of surviving the hand but it does so at the cost of chips which you leave on the table. When my M is low, I see doubling up quickly as essential to my survival and this situation seems more than favorable enough. Can't disagree with MrSmith though -- go with your instincts!
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