I'm curious how you would have played this hand. I find these middle pairs tough which can be seen by my smallish preflop raise. Typically I raise 2.5x or 3x so early in the game. However, I wasn't completely sure what I was going to do if I got reraised. Well, that is what happened of course. So, now what do I do?
9 man $4.10 knockout
If we ignore the donk short stack and assign the reraiser Ax, any pocket pair or any two broadway cards, then I'm a 64/36 favorite. If we assign a random hand to the shorty, then I'm a 50/30/20 favorite.
Hmmh,
ReplyDeletetricky indeed.
I would most probably fold it, since your bet was not that big, and you'll have 1500 chips left, which is ok as long as the blinds are still 50/100. If there is only short time left at that level, you could consider to stay in the hand, but you're most certainly up against 1, or even 2 overcards. I'm a bit puzzled by that rr, I must admin. The logical move for the villain would be AI, wouldn't it?
The big stack had knocked a few players out after flopping huge hands, but he was playing too many hands after getting his stack. The short stack was a complete donk.
ReplyDeleteMy initial thought was to hopefully see a flop before having to commit more chips. If one of the short stacks moved all in I would call. And if one of the big stack reraised, then I would grudgingly fold.
As it played out, the big stack raised and the short stack called. Now there was so much money in the pot that folding seemed like a mistake.
Calling also seemed bad since the short stack only had a few hundred chips remaining and was committed.
Thus, reraising all in was the only remaining option. I assumed correctly that I was ahead, and it gave me a small chance that the big stack would fold if he was trying to bully me with a marginal hand.
In retrospect, it was the relative stack sizes and my position more than my cards that made this a tough hand.
I'm curious how benko would have played this one...
Yikes,
ReplyDeleteI actually missed the fact that the big stack was calling the first rr. For some reason, the replayer window appears very small.
Anyway, with 2 players already in the hand, I would certainly fold that one. If you don't get the big stack to fold, which is likely to assume since he had been playing a lot of hands already, and you are 110% certain the the short stacked donk will call, you are facing too many hands which would knock you out, wouldn't you?
Getting involved in a 3 player AI at this point, with that hand, seems pretty risky.
Anyway, what was the outcome?
If you let the replayer run after the voting thing, the hand plays out. Big stack had AQo, shorty had 96s. In a three way with the ranges I stated I'm 50% to win. With with so many chips in the pot it is profitable for me to shove. The first card to flop was an A and both the shorty and me were knocked out.
ReplyDeletePS: When I run the actual cards held in Pokerstove I get:
ReplyDeleteMe 45%
big stack 37%
short stack 18%
Ok, missed the option the see the rest of it. Well, I didn't put the short stacked donk correctly :-(
ReplyDeleteInteresting figures, indeed. I'm sure I would have folded though, getting my a$$ beaten badly by these sort of hands, lol
I've been thinking through this again and again, and I'm wondering whether you would have called an AI raise from the big stack, which also was called from the short stacked donk?
ReplyDeleteTechnically, you shoved first, but in reality, you were 90% certain that you would be called by both, right?
1010 is definitely a hand to raise with, but is it good to enough to call with?
Just wondering.... :-)))
Roland, after all the recent ICM analysis, I'm surprised you don't mention ICM in your posts. Always easier to analyze these situations away from the heat of battle and to second-guess oneself but a few factors seem to favor folding. First, the range you assigned the big stack reraiser seems much too wide to me, especially if your table image is, as usual, pretty solid. Maybe things are much laggier in the $4.10s but I would put a tight player on AK and JJ+. Obviously the villain here wasn't that tight since he reraised with AQ so we probably have to expand the range to at least AQ+ and 99+ but that still leaves you a significant dog. And I don't think there's any chance he folds to your all-in after committing 700 chips and having to call only another 1000 -- the fact that he is now pot committed to calling an all-in reraise by you is another clue that his hand range is actually fairly narrow.
ReplyDeleteEven if your assigned hand range is reasonably accurate, ICM considerations seem to dictate folding. There are two stacks much shorter than yours and one of those stacks is now essentially all-in. Whereas, as MrE points out, you still have a decent-sized stack of 15 BBs after folding.
However, I've now lost seven $13 6-maxes in a row, finishing third or fourth in all of them, so I wouldn't blame you for viewing this analysis a bit sceptically! My results suggest that I need to retool my game in a laggier mold and towards that end I just started reading "Small Stakes No-Limit Hold'em" by Miller, Mehta and Flynn. It focuses on $1/$2 6-max cash games but, as you know, I really liked Mehta and Flynn's earlier book.