Well, I have done the ICM calculations. Now let’s walk through them. Firstly we need to assign a raising range for the big stack. He is pretty standard so let us say:
- 25% holding Ax or Kx making me a 73/27 favorite
- 25% holding a pocket pair making me a 43/57 underdog
- 50% holding ATC, other than the ones above, making me a 65/35 favorite
- (Numbers above come directly from Pokerstove)
Secondly, let us assume that he will call my all in reraise 100% of the time (and that the bb folds 100% of the time). Thus, we can do the math and see that I’ll win the hand 62% of the time.
Now we can take our stack sizes for winning, losing and folding and put them in an ICM calculator.
- FOLD: If I fold, I’ll have 1275 chips and have an ICM of 17.3%
- LOSE: If I get all in and lose, I’ll have no chips and have an ICM of 0%
- WIN: If I get all in and win, I’ll have 2950 chips and have an ICM of 26,0%
- (Numbers above come directly from www.chillin441.com)
Finally, we can combine our ICM values with the probability of them occurring.
Winning(62% x 26%) + losing(38% x 0%) = ICM 16.1%
Folding has an ICM of 17.3 and is more profitable than reraising all in which has an ICM of 16.1
In other words folding AK in this spot is slightly better than reraising all in!
Actually, this is so close, that any changes to the assumtions at the start may very well make this slightly profitable, for example there is always a tiny chance that he will fold to my reraise.