Bubble Play: Calling with a Strong Hand or Shoving with Crap?

EDIT:The November Private Game is set up at Pokerstars. The password is: Attack the leaders!


Here is a little food for thought that has little to do with ICM :)

Let us imagine that we are on the bubble with 4 players remaining. UTG shoves, the next two players fold, and you are holding AKo. What are your odds of winning if you call?

This is what I got after running some ranges on Pokerstove.

• 1.    You have a 63% probability of winning with AKo if he is holding Ax, any two broadway cards or a pocket pair. This is the top 28% of hands and seems fairly realistic.
• 2.    You have a 64% probability of winning with AKo vs a completely random hand.
• 3.    You have a 67% probability of winning with AKo vs 72o.
• 4.    You have a 73% probability of winning with AKo vs Ax with a weaker kicker.

There is surprizingly little difference between the first three scenarios.

Now let us imagine the following hand. The first two players fold and you are considering shoving from the small blind holding 72o. What are the odds that the big blind will fold? What are your odds of winning if you get called?

• 1.    The big blind calls 30% of the time (meaning they call with the top 30% of hands). Your 72o has a 29% probability of winning a showdown.
• 2.    The big blind calles 40% of the time. Your 72o still has a 29% probability of winning.
• 3.    The big blind calls 50% of the time. Your 72o has a 30% probability of winning.

Now we need to combine the chance of being called with the chance of winning a showdown to determine the overall probability of the possible outcomes.

If he calls 30% of the time then we can say the following:

• 1.    70% of the time he folds (and you successfully steal the blinds)
• 2.    9% of the time he calls, and you win the showdown
• 3.    21% of the time he calls, and you lose the showdown

We can add the times he folds to the times you win to say that you increase your stack 79% of the time with the worst possible hand vs a bb who will call you 30% of the time.

For a 40% calling range you will improve your stack 72% of the time.

For a 50% calling range you will improve 65% of the time.

Finally, we are ready to compare the two hands. Is it better to call an all in holding AKo, or is it better to shove 72o? Stack sizes effect the calling ranges and the number of chips to be won, but have no impact on the starting hand odds themselves.

In other words, shoving 72o into a tight bb is more likely to be successful than calling an all in with AK vs a hand that you have dominated! Fold equity is huge and perhaps more important that your cards when playing the bubble.

Roland GTX