I have been playing a fair amount of $10 single tables and 6/18 turbos lately. There is less variance in these and people are not forced to call with trash as in the 45 mans. I was getting a bit sick of all the right move, wrong result losses. Although, the 45's have taught me how to be an agro pushbot! My bankroll is now growing again, but luck is and always will be a huge factor in the short term. As an example I can mention the Daily 50K $3 rebuy tourney that I played yesterday. There were 8000 players and the top 1170 are itm. 10 min blinds, so these take a while.
My standard line with these rebuys in to buyin only once and see if I can catch some hands. The minimum payout if you get itm is usually 18 bucks. Things started well yesterday, I regged late into the game and doubled within the first 15 minutes. Wash, rinse and repeat 5 times and I was up to 45K when the rebuy period ended with a Q of 2. I hadn't played many hands, but was getting paid off on the few I did play.
After the break the game tightened up a bit and MrSmith showed up. I got very lucky in one situation in which I shoved pocket 10s right into a bb holding KK. I flopped a set and kept my stack healthy. I was still playing few hands, but hand an average stack right as we approached the bubble. 1300 players left and less than 10 minutes before the bubble will burst. A midposition player limps to me in the CO. I have 1010. I didn't want a repeat of the 1010 vs KK hand so close to the bubble. So, I flat called from position hoping to see a cheap flop. This strategy worked perfectly as the bb checked. The flop came A410 rainbow - oh yeah! I flopped a set and hopefully one of the other guys has an A. It checked to me and I shoved in the rest of my chips. The bb calls showing A4 for two pair and the other limper folded.
Notice that if a 4 comes it will give me a better house than his. His only hope is that one of the two remaining As drop (or runner, runner 4s). Pokerstove gives me a 92% likelyhood to win the hand and put me in good shape to get deep in this one.
The turn and the river ran A4! giving him the win with house over house - ouch!
I'm still the Bubble Boy King - LOL!
Note: I was playing it safe by limping preflop in order to get itm. Now, the bb was holding A4o and a stack equal to mine. Would he have folded had I simply shoved preflop...? Sometimes safe isn't so safe after all.