After playing more than 750 single table $4.10 knockouts since August, I thought it was about time to take a new look at my results to see if knockouts are helping or hurting my winnings. I requested an account audit from Pokerstars so that I could see all the bounties, even from the tourneys where I wasn’t itm.
If we ignore the bounties and consider these to be $3.35 tourneys (this is what Sharkscope and Pokerprolabs do), then I have a 16% ROI which is equal to 0.52 profit per game. I’m happy with this and to see I’m at least making money playing these things.
If we look at the bounties alone, I have won 578 bounties in 765 games. I’m losing money on the bounties averaging less than one bounty per game (75%).
If we put it all together and simply consider these to be $4.10 games, then I have an ROI of 8% which is equal to 0.33 cents profit per game. In other words, I’m a winning player at this level, but the knockouts are taking a huge chunk out of my profit. I doubt the knockouts are that much softer than the normal sngs. The rake however is too high in the normal $3.40 sng. So, I need to move up to the $5.50 level.
I’m going to test the waters playing $5.50 normal sngs for the time being and see how they work out. I need a 6% ROI to equal the 33 cent profit per game I have had with the knockouts. Hopefully, I can manage a bit better.
I played two sets of $5 games yesterday. My first impression was that people were more cautious durng the early blind levels and not busting out as fast as they do in the knockouts. However, most players were also too passive on the bubble. I won money the firs set, lost money the second and ended the evening up one dollar – lol! Profitable, but not exactly 33 cents per game.
I’ll keep you updated as always.