Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Interesting Bubble Play

Here is a replay from a $5.50 single table sng I played. The action starts with hand nr 39. I have been pretty inactive up to this point. Hand nr 1 (nr 39 in reality) is a good example of why you need to be careful with less than premium hands early in the game. Bad play here by me...

I manage to recover, but the action doesn't get too interesting until we are down to 4 players on the bubble. I feel like I played my A game, and just got unlucky on the final hand. I'll take a closer look myself tonight. Let me know what you think.

UPDATE: Now I went through the hh. I see that I folded a number of AXs hands while short stacked. I find these hands awkward. I don't have much fold equity and one is often called by an A with a better kicker. Nonetheless, they are probably cEV+ hands. I'll run some numbers in pokerstove later.

The few reraise steals I had were good. However, once again, I think I folded a few good all in resteal chances as well.

Calling with 88 twice seems ok pot odds wize. Folding 77 vs making an all in call. Not sure here. Once again I'll run the numbers through pokerstove.

The final hand was a case of right move, wrong result. I was surprized he called with such a weak hand.



  1. Your play looked very solid to me, Roland. Nice use of your table image to make moves with the T4o, JTo, etc. I think I would have just shoved with the AK of hearts and, as you suggest, made a standard opening raise with some of the weak aces that you folded. Six handed, if you have an ace, no one else will have an ace about 50% of the time and when it's down to four handed, that figure rises to about 67% so unless your opponents are super-aggressive, I think it's worth trying to "steal" the blinds. UL on the last hand.

    I should be able to make it Sunday so hope to see you then.

  2. Thanks benko. I hope to see you in the tourney tomorrow. I need to work on playing with 10-15 BB stacks. That seems the toughest part of bubble play.


  3. Hey Roland

    I dont like you reshove in the last hand. KJo is to weak. The fact that we are on the bubble and that you will have 12BB left when the blinds pass makes this a huge -EV shove. Unless you are sure he folds alot here, which dont seems to be the case in low limit sng. They tend to call light and shove tight. I would be more patient and wait for a better spot. Lets say he was raising 25% of his hands (22+, A4o+, A2s+, KTo+, K8s+, QTs+,) Then you will win if i calls on average 41%. At the bubble with you stack given our edge we should have at least 65% winningchance to get it in. Else we loose to much equity. My range for a reshove here (depending on how loose the donk was) is AQ+, TT+, given the stacksizes! (If he is really loose then AJs+, 88+,)

    Morten (Copydan)

  4. Thanks for the good comment Morten! Are your numbers coming from SNG Wizard? You might be right, I'll go through that hand again tomorrow. My thinking at the time was that there was 800 chips in the pot and I had enough of a stack to have good fold equity. My read was that the big stack was highly likely to be on a steal and wouldn't call as lightly as you suggest.

    I'll recheck this tomorrow and make a new post. Perhaps you have spotted a leak in my game.

    Bad luck with your KK running into the only hand you don't want to see in our private game. I was happy it was me with the AA though :)


  5. Hey again..

    No it was at work, so it was just what i would have done before looking it up in sngwiz.

    I have taken a look at the hand at sng wiz.

    Here are my adjusted comments:

    a) If we assume villian is raising 25% of his hands and you reshove into him, and then he calls top 10% of hands. You can shove 99+, AK.

    b) If we assume villian is raising 30% of his hands and you reshove into him, and then he calls top 25% of hands. You can shove JJ+, AKs+.

    I guess (b) is the most accurate ecsampel given he called with QJo, maybe he is raising even more than 30% (lets say 40%, you can just reshove 99+, AQ+), but I think his calling range is about right with 25% (Any pair, any ace, broadways). With that in mind i think you need to tighten up a bit with the given stacksize.

    These numbers have I just ran in sngwiz.

    I didnt play, it was Stefan you knocked out hehe.. Stefan is JaneMaria, im mckrogh but didnt play the private game!


  6. Thanks for the update! Your revised numbers look good. I like to reraise on likely steals whenever there are chips for more than 30% of my stack already in the pot. In this hand there was less than 25%. Your ranges look pretty good now. Thanks for pointing this out.

    Tell Stefan I said thanks for his chips LOL! I put them to good use at least :)