Uncomfortable Spot with 1010

I'm curious how you would have played this hand. I find these middle pairs tough which can be seen by my smallish preflop raise. Typically I raise 2.5x or 3x so early in the game. However, I wasn't completely sure what I was going to do if I got reraised. Well, that is what happened of course. So, now what do I do?

9 man $4.10 knockout



If we ignore the donk short stack and assign the reraiser Ax, any pocket pair or any two broadway cards, then I'm a 64/36 favorite. If we assign a random hand to the shorty, then I'm a 50/30/20 favorite.

Bubble Play: Calling with a Strong Hand or Shoving with Crap?

EDIT:The November Private Game is set up at Pokerstars. The password is: Attack the leaders!


Here is a little food for thought that has little to do with ICM :)

Let us imagine that we are on the bubble with 4 players remaining. UTG shoves, the next two players fold, and you are holding AKo. What are your odds of winning if you call?

This is what I got after running some ranges on Pokerstove.

• 1.    You have a 63% probability of winning with AKo if he is holding Ax, any two broadway cards or a pocket pair. This is the top 28% of hands and seems fairly realistic.
• 2.    You have a 64% probability of winning with AKo vs a completely random hand.
• 3.    You have a 67% probability of winning with AKo vs 72o.
• 4.    You have a 73% probability of winning with AKo vs Ax with a weaker kicker.

There is surprizingly little difference between the first three scenarios.

Now let us imagine the following hand. The first two players fold and you are considering shoving from the small blind holding 72o. What are the odds that the big blind will fold? What are your odds of winning if you get called?

• 1.    The big blind calls 30% of the time (meaning they call with the top 30% of hands). Your 72o has a 29% probability of winning a showdown.
• 2.    The big blind calles 40% of the time. Your 72o still has a 29% probability of winning.
• 3.    The big blind calls 50% of the time. Your 72o has a 30% probability of winning.

Now we need to combine the chance of being called with the chance of winning a showdown to determine the overall probability of the possible outcomes.

If he calls 30% of the time then we can say the following:

• 1.    70% of the time he folds (and you successfully steal the blinds)
• 2.    9% of the time he calls, and you win the showdown
• 3.    21% of the time he calls, and you lose the showdown

We can add the times he folds to the times you win to say that you increase your stack 79% of the time with the worst possible hand vs a bb who will call you 30% of the time.

For a 40% calling range you will improve your stack 72% of the time.

For a 50% calling range you will improve 65% of the time.

Finally, we are ready to compare the two hands. Is it better to call an all in holding AKo, or is it better to shove 72o? Stack sizes effect the calling ranges and the number of chips to be won, but have no impact on the starting hand odds themselves.

In other words, shoving 72o into a tight bb is more likely to be successful than calling an all in with AK vs a hand that you have dominated! Fold equity is huge and perhaps more important that your cards when playing the bubble.

Roland GTX

ICM and the Previous Post

Well, I have done the ICM calculations. Now let’s walk through them. Firstly we need to assign a raising range for the big stack. He is pretty standard so let us say:

• 25% holding Ax or Kx making me a 73/27 favorite
• 25% holding a pocket pair making me a 43/57 underdog
• 50% holding ATC, other than the ones above, making me a 65/35 favorite
• (Numbers above come directly from Pokerstove)

Secondly, let us assume that he will call my all in reraise 100% of the time (and that the bb folds 100% of the time). Thus, we can do the math and see that I’ll win the hand 62% of the time.

Now we can take our stack sizes for winning, losing and folding and put them in an ICM calculator.

• FOLD: If I fold, I’ll have 1275 chips and have an ICM of 17.3%
• LOSE: If I get all in and lose, I’ll have no chips and have an ICM of 0%
• WIN: If I get all in and win, I’ll have 2950 chips and have an ICM of 26,0%
• (Numbers above come directly from www.chillin441.com)

Finally, we can combine our ICM values with the probability of them occurring.

Winning(62% x 26%) + losing(38% x 0%) = ICM 16.1%

Folding has an ICM of 17.3 and is more profitable than reraising all in which has an ICM of 16.1

In other words folding AK in this spot is slightly better than reraising all in!

Actually, this is so close, that any changes to the assumtions at the start may very well make this slightly profitable, for example there is always a tiny chance that he will fold to my reraise.

Roland GTX

Bubble Play vs the Big Stack

Things have been going well lately in the $4.10 knockouts for me. However, with my tight style, I often end up being one of the short stacks on the bubble. I’m trying to work out what my preflop reraising range should be when I’m reraising the chipleader.

Here is a specific example that occurred last night. We were on the bubble and the blinds were at 100/200 but would soon be increasing to 100/200 + ante. Everyone left at the table has played fairly normal. They have been slightly looser than me, but still fairly tight, and they have been slightly more passive than me. The shortstack seems passive hoping to squeak into the money. The chipleader has not been overly aggressive with his big stack.

UTG (6350 chips after raising) raises to 500

BTN (820 chips) folds

Roland GTX in SB (1275 chips after posting)

BB (4255 chips after posting)

There are 800 chips in the pot and I am holding AKo. What should I do?

I can’t call off a 3^rd of my stack and then fold on a missed flop so calling is out of the question.

I can fold and hope that I survive longer than the short stack. Or, I can reraise all in knowing that there is nearly no chance that the big stack will fold? At best he has Ax making me a 70/30 favorite. Two random cards make me a 60/40 favorite. If he is holding a smaller pocket pair then he is a 52/48 favorite. The only hand I’m a dog to is AA.

This situation is clearly Ev+, but I don’t know if it is smart according to ICM. Any takers?

Roland GTX

November game

Hi everyone,
I don't recall whether we should be trying to play another midweek game, or if we should stick to the sundays?
In case sunday fits everybody, I'll suggest Nov 7th, 9pm as usual.
If you gentlemen prefer a midweek game, we could do that on Nov 3rd, same time as last time.
Up 2 u guys :-)

October Game Replay

October Leaderboard

Thanks for another exciting game yesterday! I'll post my game-related comments once MrSmith gets the hand history up. MrEMC2 is responsible for the November private game. Here is the updated leaderboard. Click on the pic if you want a larger image.

Roland GTX

Playing the BIG stacks

Here's a hh from yesterday, from a $5/9 tourney. The first 3 hands are originally #15, #39 and #56. Hand 4 is basically #63, and from that point, we were down to 3 players, and me having a huge stack.
Player 4 was pretty short stacked, but playing extremely tight, and basically folding almost every small blind when I was in big blind, at least it felt like it.
During the 45 hands, player 8 was getting pretty annoyed by my play, claiming that I should have been doing more to take out player 4.
As it felt yesterday, I didn't have the hands to call the couple of AIs raised by the ss, even if I was holding a big stack. Looking at the hh, I wonder if I should have called the AI in #20? I'm pretty sure the villain had a 'better' hand, and folded without hesitation. Appreciate any comments on that decision.
BTW, the first hand is actually the first time ever that I pull off a showdown with equal pp due to a flush :-)
And yes, #42 was pretty dumb play as well :-( Don't need comments on that one, lol.
My only excuse, as usual, is that I was BUSY in a $5/27 at the same time, which I managed to win, but I managed only second place in the $5/9.